Can Putin kill Lukashenka? The more and more harsh friendship between dictators from Moscow and Minsk

In relationships within a dictatorial and criminal world, anything is possible.

I do not rule out that Alyaksandr Lukashenka is afraid of this. Dictators like him always fear such tragic outcome. This dread about his “oberdictator,” Putin, is constantly in the back of his mind. He worries that he may try to call a hit on him anytime. In such relationships, anything is possible. It wouldn’t be surprising to hear about this happening in a world run by despots and criminals.

Lukashenka certainly lives in the paranoia of fear. There have been rumors in the media about his approaching death, but they are greatly exaggerated. His fear of being attacked from all sides is a common psychosis among dictators. They are aware that many people despise them and may try to eliminate them. Even if they try to convince themselves that the nation loves them, dread still grips them. They govern through fear and terror. Also, such individuals are their own harshest judges.

The consequence of each castling, the death of a dictator, or even a palace coup is challenging to predict. Vladimir Putin holds Lukashenka’s Belarus tightly in the palm of his hand now. That is why Lukashenka remaining as an autocratic leader is still convenient. It gives Putin the sense he controls him completely. Additionally, there are reports that Russia will soon deploy nuclear weapons in the region.

The death of Lukashenka would certainly mean significant moves in terms of the power structure. Predicting the actions of the Lukashenka circles is tricky. It is due to the presence of his son’s faction, as well as several potential successors who are being considered. It is a big question mark as of now. Furthermore, there is no individual with a strong expression of power within Lukashenka’s apparatus of the state, as he has already eliminated anyone who possesses such qualities. Each of the people around him today is 100% subordinate to the dictator. It is far more complex to say who would stand out in the foreground to replace him as a new leader.

Today, Putin has the most to say about the fate of Belarus. Much depends on the course of the war in Ukraine. Russia is calling the shots on the Belarusian regime and is also the guarantor of lawlessness and terror in Belarus. Lukashenka takes advantage of this. The lack of response from the free world has reinforced the belief that the leader can continue to use authoritarian tactics without consequence, leading to an endless cycle of torment.

In November 2020, two journalists from Belsat who covered the street events in Belarus were detained and received a two-year prison sentence. Currently, two-year punishments are uncommon, as penalties are typically much higher. Then one of them, Katsyaryna (Bakhvalava) Andreyeva, was given another eight years in an implicit trial. In Belarus last year, draconian sentences of over a dozen years in prison were issued. Lukashenka got to the point that he could act without consequences and would be immune to repercussions.

There is still enormous room for the West and the free world to take action and impose sanctions against Belarus. It is very worrying that some leaders, such as President Emmanuel Macron, don’t believe enforcing severe sanctions on Belarus and Lukashenka’s regime is necessary. The European sanctions against Belarus are relatively ineffective. This fact should be stated plainly. Some companies have faced symbolic or personal sanctions. It occurred even after they had already re-registered.

Lukashenka has unleashed a reign of terror across Belarusian territory. At the same time, he cooperates with Russia. Drastically violates human rights and throws thousands of people into prisons. And yet, it is what it is.

Agnieszka Romaszewska-Guzy, Director of Belsat TV

(Based on an interview with Fakt Daily)

Translated by PEV.