ISW: China's leader will not give Putin the support he needs


Chinese leader Xi Jinping met with Vladimir Putin in Moscow but offered him a more restrained vision of bilateral relations than he would have liked and expected, the US-based Institute for War Studies (ISW) said in a new report.

At the Monday meeting on March 20, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin praised the strength of the bilateral relationship. However, articles published by the media in both countries the day before offered different interpretations of the scope of future relations, the ISW report said.

Xi’s rhetoric suggests that he is unwilling to fully provide Russia with the economic and political support needed to reverse Ukraine’s setbacks, according to the ISW analysis.

American experts said that both leaders presented similar visions of increasing bilateral economic cooperation. Both countries signed several agreements, some of which may facilitate the circumvention of sanctions.

The ISW recalls that Putin argued in a text published in the Chinese media that Russia and China are building a partnership to create a multipolar world order, while the West is striving for dominance. He also said that the United States is now trying to limit both countries.

In a text for the Russian media, Chinese President Xi Jinping proposed a “less aggressive” main goal for Sino-Russian relations and generally admitted that both countries seek a multipolar world order. However, the ISW emphasizes that he did not write that it was directed against the West.

Instead, Xi focused on trying to show China as a potential mediator in the war in Ukraine, assessing that Beijing’s position calling for negotiations “reflects the unity of opinion of the world community on overcoming the Ukrainian crisis.”

Putin expressed satisfaction with China’s willingness to “play a constructive role in managing the crisis. Still, he probably hoped that Xi would adopt similarly aggressive rhetoric toward the West, according to ISW. As the think tank reported, this marks a “significant departure” from the “partnership without borders” with Russia that China declared shortly before launching its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Xi is likely to make a more concrete proposal for a settlement of the war in Ukraine, but it is unclear what that proposal will include or how the Kremlin will respond. The issue of possible military supplies from China to Russia also remains unclear, the ISW added in its latest report.

Xi Jinping’s visit to Russia will last until March 23. Meetings with the highest representatives of the Russian government were also planned. They were devoted mainly to economic issues. China, since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and in connection with Western sanctions imposed on Moscow, they are trying to obtain better terms of trade from, among others, in relation to energy.

Meanwhile, in an interview with the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said she did not think China would decide to sell weapons to Russia.

“China has traditionally conducted foreign policy as an expert player. I don’t think that Xi intends to engage in open conflict with the West in order to strengthen cooperation with Russia,” she also said.

In her opinion, the authorities in Beijing do not want to risk economic sanctions and new tensions, especially after such a strong move as the arrest warrant issued for Vladimir Putin by the International Criminal Court.

Vereshchuk, speaking about the Chinese so-called peace plan, noted:

“We have 10 points presented by President Zelensky, and we hope that China will be on our side of truth and justice. (…) The Chinese people should consider the introduction of a ceasefire impossible if it is not preceded by the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory”.

At the same time, she expressed the opinion that a telephone conversation between the Chinese leader and the Ukrainian president “would be an important step”.

Asked if she was concerned about Chinese weapons being sent to Russia, the Deputy Prime Minister replied:

“That would lead to a direct conflict with the West. In my opinion, the Chinese leaders are much more intelligent than the Russian ones”.

Earlier, various world media reported that Xi Jinping would call Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky after his visit to Moscow.

Today we know that the telephone conversation between Xi and President Zelensky has not yet taken place. It was also reported that Xi Jinping invited Vladimir Putin to China during his visit.

MaH/belsat.eu according to PAP, washingtonpost.com, unian.net

Translated by PEV

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