If you’re, for instance, a Polish person taking a short trip to Hungary, you might be surprised to find little support for Ukraine. During my three-day visit to Budapest, I didn’t see any Ukrainian flags, blue backpack ribbons, or car stickers in the colors of Ukraine. This lack of support extends not only to politicians but also to the general population of Hungary. However, there’s a simple explanation for this surprising observation.
Approximately a decade ago, Prime Minister Viktor Orban implemented a policy intended to promote collaboration with Eastern countries like China, Russia, and India. All because, unlike the deteriorating West, the world’s future would be in that region. The leader of Hungary is choosing to maintain relations with Moscow despite the ongoing military conflict. This decision remains unchanged despite the violent actions committed by Russian forces in areas such as Bucha, Irpen, and Mariupol. He engages in discussions with the Kremlin regarding gas contracts, including their terms, the purchase of oil, and the Paks Project 2, which involves the expansion of a nuclear power plant. He justifies his actions to ensure Hungary’s access to affordable raw materials and reliable energy sources. He is against the EU sanctions placed on these sectors and believes they are not beneficial. Last year, the Hungarian oil company MOL achieved impressive results, which supports his stance. However, it is a partial success.
Despite the West’s efforts to reduce or to cut their reliance on Moscow for energy completely, Viktor Orban and his government are making some feigning moves that may seem productive. However, in reality, they yield little success. In addition, if Hungary continues to maintain contracts for constructing additional blocks at the Paks nuclear power plant, it could increase its dependence on Russia. This power plant currently provides half of the electricity. Still, its expansion could provide close to one hundred percent. The government in Budapest did not feel compelled to make any changes in this area due to the war.
Viktor Orban has committed several sins, such as trying to undermine the EU sanctions on energy resources, intervening to keep Patriarch Kirill of the Russian Orthodox Church off the sanctions list, blocking military transports for Ukraine through Hungary, and opposing Kyiv’s collaboration with NATO. Furthermore, this has led to increased criticism of the Hungarian authorities by other EU nations. However, while relations with Brussels have always been tense, Budapest has even lost its closest, at least declaratively, ally, which was Poland. The Hungarian Prime Minister believes that the conflict regarding the war is similar to other disputes involving Brussels or Warsaw and should not affect regular communication. He disregards the fact that for Polish nation’s defeat of Russia by the Ukrainians is crucial for their survival. It is a matter of “to be or not to be.”
It is worth mentioning that Warsaw has a multi-track policy towards Kyiv. Warsaw has military, economic, and humanitarian support on one track, Ukrainian grain on the other, historical issues, including the Volhynian massacre on the third, and education in the Polish language in Ukraine for representatives of the Polish minority on the fourth. In the case of Budapest, there is only one track regarding Ukraine. And it’s wide because it runs straight to Moscow, at least in terms of effects. For Viktor Orban, the issue of Hungarian schools and the allegedly discriminated minority in Ukrainian Zakarpattia paralyzes all other problems that follow the same path.
By the way, in Ukrainian media, the Hungarians from Zakarpattia are portrayed as heroes on the front lines. However, in the Hungarian mass media, they are depicted as victims of forced mobilization being sent to the front lines.
The Hungarian Prime Minister’s relationship with Russia appears contradictory and divided into two separate tracks. One truck involves political relations that are currently suspended. The other one involves economic ties that are thriving despite the political situation. They have remained unchanged since February 24, 2022. It proves the Prime Minister can manage various issues separately if needed.
Although Budapest may have gained little international recognition due to its politics, has it succeeded in domestic politics? During the elections held on April 3 last year, Viktor Orban’s Fidesz won a notable victory, capturing over two-thirds of the seats in the National Assembly. This event occurred over a month after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began. The election campaign strategy aimed to promote the idea that Fidesz is the only party capable of protecting Hungarians from the adverse consequences of war-related economic downturns.
Although there was an election win, it does not necessarily indicate success in domestic policy. There are other issues in Hungary besides the lack of support for Ukraine. The primary concern is the high cost of living conditions. The inflation rate for April was 24%, three times higher than the average rate in the European Union. Meanwhile, Poland’s inflation during the same period was 14%. Despite this, Viktor Orban’s government is pointing fingers at EU sanctions as the cause.
The term “sanctionary inflation” is used, which doesn’t seem to make sense since all EU countries have implemented sanctions. According to this theory, as in Hungary, inflation should be high in all EU countries. However, despite this, the people of Hungary, especially Fidesz supporters, seem to believe in this kind of inflation.
Powerful propaganda has influenced the views of the Hungarians, where pro-government media dominates the TV market. There are only two critical government administration channels, namely RTL and ATV. The state also controls the regional press. Although the pro-government media is more assertive on the internet, a quick look at some of them is still surprising. The information provided is often a replica of Russian propaganda regarding Ukraine, the EU, and the West. The blame for the war is primarily placed on the US instead of Russia, even though Russia has been known for its imperial policy and disregard for civil liberties. The European Union and Brussels are portrayed as the modern-day Soviet Union, attempting to enforce their power over member states, particularly Hungary. The memories of the 1956 and anti-Soviet riots still linger in society, but Fidesz supporters seem to have entirely detached them from the present.
Some voices, mainly from the far-right party called Our Homeland, advocate in Parliament that Ukraine should promptly negotiate a deal with Russia and cede a portion of its territory to end the ongoing conflict. There are instances where people bring up Hungary’s situation from 1920. Hungary lost over 2/3 of its land due to the Treaty of Trianon. It is essential to acknowledge that the circumstances leading up to this event are not easily comparable with the aggression in Ukraine. Hungary lost its territory due to losing a war, whereas Russia’s attack on Ukraine lacked any legitimate justification for claiming a portion of its land.
According to Viktor Orban, the conflict will end rapidly if the West does not support Ukraine. A cease-fire could make Moscow more powerful and launch another attack in a few years. Both scenarios pose a severe threat to both Ukraine and Poland.
Finally, it could seem like good news. Recent polls show that most Hungarians maintain a pro-Western stance and support EU and NATO membership. However, they prioritize the avoidance of war, at least within Hungary.
Piotr Pogorzelski /belsat.eu
Translated by PEV.
The opinions and thoughts expressed in the text reflect only the author's views.
